Millions of people all over the world are passionate about football betting. The betting volumes are colossal, but statistics show that only a small percentage of players receive profits from sports betting. All novice players eventually come to one thing – before online betting their hard-earned money on the victory of Burnley over Fulham with a coefficient of 2.32, you need to analyze this football match.
This guide will help beginners understand how to do it.
The position of the teams in the standings
The most obvious criterion for analysis. Motivation and psychological state are directly proportional to what part of the standings the team is in, this is especially pronounced at the end of the season.
- The top part of the standings suggests high motivation – getting into the European Cups, the championship;
- Middle of the table – average motivation and average teams;
- The bottom of the table is high motivation. The teams at the bottom of the table will fight to avoid relegation.
For example, consider a recent example from the Premier League – Liverpool and Manchester City. A few rounds ago, Liverpool were top contenders for the English title, but Guardiola’s motivation, coupled with the psychological problems of Klopp’s team, brought City back into the game. And now they are in first place in the table.
Or take Manchester United. The team was clearly on dismoral, hanging out in the middle of the table, the players moved across the field on foot. But as soon as José Mourinho was fired, the team flourished, and psychologically.
Latest Games
It is worth considering the results of the last 5-7 matches. It is worth considering separately home / away games, and the total number of matches. A team that has not lost for a long time at home will try its best to extend the streak. A team that does not play well away, provided that it constantly scores, will strive to break an unsuccessful streak. Spanish Championship – Valencia vs Real Sociedad. The Bats are unbeaten in 10 home games in a row. Considering that Valencia played in the Cup away from Betis, pulling out a draw in the last seconds, and Sociedad had more days for football, preparation, the result is positive for Valencia and the streak has been extended to 11 matches without defeat at home.
Please note that all series are interrupted. On such events, you can bet flat on the continuation / interruption of a series. The longer the series, the more difficult the team psychologically, oddly enough.
Goals scored and conceded
Again, we take the last 5-7 matches for analysis. You can calculate the average total of teams, pay attention to the style of play of a team. For example, Atlético Madrid have won over 20% of their games 1-0. After analyzing Juventus, we can say that the players, having made the score 1:0, 2:0 in their favor, frankly begin to kill time. The passing bet on Juve in the last six matches of the championship is “Underweight 1.5 will not lose”. The Dutch PSV in 18 matches out of 20 broke the total over 2.5.
There is a strategy for Under/Total 2.5 that can be used to analyze the match as a whole. Its essence is as follows:
- First, you need to calculate the average number of goals scored at home for the first team.
- The next step is to calculate the average number of goals conceded by the first team at home.
- Similarly, we also calculate for the second team.
- We add all four numbers obtained and divide by 2. Apply the resulting value to the ranges: more than 2.7 – definitely worth considering the over 2.5 rate, the value of the number of goals in the range from 2.5 to 2.7 – you need to conduct additional analysis for the over 2.5 rate, from 2.5 to 2.3 – additional analysis of the bet under 2.5, less than the value of 2.3 – definitely worth betting on under 2.5.
This strategy is not 100% winning and does not guarantee results. In any case, before using this strategy, it is necessary to conduct additional analysis and take into account third-party factors.
Player uniforms
This is an important factor that can have an impact on the team. Various authoritative resources help to evaluate the individual form of players: whoscored.com, injuriesandsuspensions.com. Transfer rumours, conflicts, family reunions or tragedies – all this information can be very useful regarding one player who can change the course of the match. It is worth paying attention to the following details:
– illness or injury (only after leaving the infirmary, players can not immediately find their game)
– contracts with key players
– participation in international matches (according to statistics, after the end of the international break, the teams with the most collections play very poorly in the first club matches)
Judge Factor
The referee is a direct participant in the meeting, capable of turning the game upside down with one deletion or an unappointed penalty. As part of the analysis of a football match, it is necessary to study the style of refereeing, loyalty to martial arts, the number of cards in a season.
Betting on cards, fouls is a very popular direction. All bettors know the Turkish referee Cuneyt Çakir, in most of the games that he judged, it was possible to bet more cards on the total.
Other factors for analysis
Weather. All football players are professionals, however rain, heat or snow must be taken into account, which can affect the course of the game and the physical condition of the players.
Match status factor. Derby, irreconcilable and principled rivals, all this additionally motivates the players and makes the fans drive their favorites forward with redoubled zeal.
Movement of betting lines. This information may give us food for thought. Correct reading of the betting line gives a very serious advantage. It is necessary to place a bet at the moment the line is closed, that is, at the moment of the referee’s starting whistle.
As another recommendation
I would like to note that the analysis of a football match is a time-consuming process. Studying statistics, lineups, websites and special resources, all this takes time. But this is the whole point of betting – this is a serious job that, with the right attitude, diligence and attentiveness, can generate income.